Oversubscription and Vacancies in Kent Grammar Schools on Allocation for 2019

Friday, 29 March 2019 17:47

Oversubscription and Vacancies in Kent Grammar Schools on Allocation for 2019

2 comments

Index

Update September 2019: I have belatedly received fuller details about oversubscription from KCC, with which I have replaced a previous measure below, along with 2019 Appeal outcomes

You will find the parallel article looking at Kent Non-selective schools here. Medway Schools to follow. Please note that the two articles on secondary school allocation in Kent had over 27,000 hits last year, being the two longest and most popular I publish. If there are corrections to be made, or you would like any section expanded or clarified, please let me know.

The number of Kent grammar school places available for Year 7 pupils has risen by just 20 overall since last year, to 5469, with a total increase of 535 over the past five years. The biggest change is an increase of 30 places at Simon Langton Boys to 150, although its popularity has dropped sharply. There are currently 217 empty spaces for September (up from 184 in 2018), in ten grammar schools including three of the four Maidstone grammars.

417 of the 5252 Kent grammar school places offered, or 8% (down from 9% in 2018) of the total, went to pupils from outside of the county (ooc), with 223 pupils going to out of county grammars, mainly in Medway. 147 pupils coming in were offered places at the two Dartford Grammar schools. As a result, the pressure on places at these two schools continues to rise inexorably along with the two Wilmington grammars, led by Dartford Grammar School with a record 336 grammar qualified first choices turned down for its 180 places, up from 313 in 2018. The next most popular schools were unsurprisingly Dartford Girls, The Judd School, Skimmers and Tonbridge Grammar.

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As far as I am aware there is just one black spot for grammar school applications, North West Kent, especially around Swanscombe and Greenhithe, where a number of grammar qualified children have been offered no grammar school place, although most applied for two or three of the local schools.

I look at the outcomes below in more detail, including levels of oversubscription and vacancies together with a look at each school individually. You will find copious data on each individual school here.

You will find an initial article on allocation here, that also provides cut off scores for the super selective schools, and also the 2018 equivalent article here. You will also find further information on each secondary school here, the pages currently being updated. Please let me know of any you wish to be brought up to date.

Please note that all statistics in this page refer to grammar qualified children, both via the Kent Test and also through local Tests available through six grammar schools as explained below. I am sorry that my full analysis of Kent Test results has been delayed this year, but I hope to publish it soon.

Oversubscription

The most oversubscribed school by grammar qualified first choices is once again Dartford Grammar turning away 336 boys. With the school topping this list for some year, the overwhelming majority of the disappointed boys stand no chance off the waiting list or at appeal.

Immediately below is full list of those schools oversubscribed with more than ten first choices (grammar qualified) than places. This pattern will change a little following re-allocation in coming months, and successful appeals can change the picture significantly, as schools admit additional pupils, in some cases drawing them from other grammars. However, it is clear that for the large majority of these schools, few appeals are successful.

The change of oversubscription criteria for Skinners has produced a very unclear picture. I look at this in more detail below.

MOST OVERSUBSCRIBED KENT GRAMMAR SCHOOLS ON ALLOCATION 2019
GRAMMAR SCHOOL	PLACES OFFERED	QUALIFIED 1ST CHOICES TURNED DOWN	OOC* OFFERS	APPEALS 2019	APPEALS UPHELD 2019
Dartford	180	336	80	130	6
Dartford Girls	180	230	67	91	0
Judd	180	173	17	58	9
Skinners	160	122	18	53	4
Tonbridge	180	111	30	30	2
Wilmington Boys	150	101	25	114	8
Wilmington Girls	150	73	29	91	4
Mayfield	180	39	5	44	16
Queen Elizabeth's	140	36	0	33	5
Dane Court	165	30	0	68	21
Maidstone	205	29	o	68	18
Highsted	150	29	5	Waiting
Weald of Kent	295	27	35	96	19
Dover Girls	140	27	0	31	5

Note * ooc - Out of County You will find the comparative data for 2018 admission here.

Vacancies

There were just ten grammar schools with vacancies on allocation, so all appeals at these schools will be from children with a non-selective decision after the Kent Test procedure. The total number of vacancies at this stage is 217 places unfilled, (184 in 2018). Most of these will vanish after appeals and late applications.

Three quarters of the vacancies are from five of the six grammar schools in Maidstone and Ashford (Maidstone Grammar is oversubscribed).

KENT GRAMMAR SCHOOLS WITH MORE THAN 5 VACANCIES, MARCH 2019
GRAMMAR SCHOOL	PLACES AVAILABLE	VACANCIES	APPEALS 2019	APPEALS UPHELD 2019
Maidstone Girls	180	58	114	75
Oakwood Park	160	41	128	74
Norton Knatchbull	210	40	66	37
Highworth	210	21	75	45
Borden	120	16	Waiting
Dover Boys	150	12	9	4
Highsted	150	12	Waiting
Simon Langton Girls	165	8	44	31
Barton Court	150	5	64	12
Invicta	240	4	89	20

CHANGE IN POPULARITY MEASURED BY 1ST CHOICES
Dartford Girls	+79	Tunbridge Wells Boys	-49
Skinners	+54	Tunbridge Wells Girls	-46
Judd	+30	Simon Langton Boys	-37
Norton Knatchbull	+28	Oakwood Park	-25
Wilmington Boys	+26	Maidstone Girls	-25

To find details of Individual Schools in:

North West Kent - go to Page 3

West Kent - go to Page 4

Maidstone and Ashford - go to Page 5

Folkestone and Dover - go to Page 6

East Kent - go to Page 7

Individual School Survey Below:

I have quoted the number of first choices offered places at each school below, where there were no children with Education Health Care Plans offered places (where there are EHCPs, Kent County Council has redacted information)..

Last modified on Friday, 11 October 2019 19:15

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2 comments

Comment Link Tuesday, 04 June 2019 11:49 posted by BH
Did you hear that the Panel for Skinners' upheld 5 out of 74 appeals, meaning class sizes of 33 boys per class from September 2019? Very unexpected! PETER: In all West Kent schools there is leakage to the private sector, so the numbers will certainly be lower than this, as additional pupils cannot now be added except by late appeals. Surely, totally EXPECTED, given past performance as can be seen here: https://www.kentadvice.co.uk/individual-schools/kent-secondary-schools-a-academies/item/973-individual-school-information-s.html#Skinners
Comment Link Wednesday, 15 May 2019 17:07 posted by BH
Just re-reading your Skinners' appeals notes. If, for argument's sake, the school was asked by the Panel to take an extra bulge class, would the children on the waiting list ranked 1-32 take priority for these spaces? Or would the Panel choose those children most deserving amongst those appealing? Or some combination of both? PETER: The Waiting List only kicks in when the number of accepted offers falls to the original PAN after the successful appeals have been offered. It is entirely up to the Appeal Panel how many they put through directly and how many, if any they choose to place on the waiting list.