It is important for families to appreciate there is considerable churning in some areas between now and September, as appeals (especially to grammar schools) and to more popular non-selective schools, play a major part in seeing movement in waiting lists.

Note: The appeal data should not be taken as more than a rough guide, as school situations can change from year to year; for example the rapid increase in popularity at Malling and Meopham, see below.

This table includes all schools with an initial vacancy rate of over a third. 

From Medway it is to mainly to Aylesford, Holmesdale, Malling and Meopham. From Bromley to Knole Academy, with a few to Trinity (presumably on religious grounds) and Orchards. East Sussex to Homewood, Bennett Memorial and St Gregory’s; out to Beacon and Uplands (close to Tunbridge Wells) and Rye and Robertsbridge (to the south); Bexley all Dartford traffic both ways; and Surrey to Oxted School.

DISTRICT SURVEY

The interesting one is the Wye Free School with an intake of 90, still oversubscribed by 14 pupils, but what a fall from 2017’s 64. This may well be a consequence of internal problems that have seen the headteacher resign suddenly last summer, followed by the Head of Inclusion and SENCO who both left in the first few weeks of the autumn, followed by further resignations at Christmas. There are issues of both behaviour and attendance reported to governors. Pressure on places will probably be eased a little as Norton Knatchbull, the boys’ grammar traditionally admits high numbers of boys on appeal.

The nearby Towers appears to have been the big beneficiary, having gone from 37 vacancies for its 234 places in 2017 to none this year (and no LAAs).

There are new schools in the pipeline to cater for future housing developments, assuming sponsors come forward

Every other school oversubscribed by first choices, led by Wilmington Academy with 29 turned away and Dartford Science and Technology 23, apart from Leigh Academy, which was the most oversubscribed school in Kent for years until 2014, and then has fast lost popularity, filling this year by virtue of one LAA, although has put an extra 14 places in. Altogether Leigh, Dartford Science and Technology, Inspiration Academy and Longfield Academy have added an extra 53 places between them. A new non-selective Free School to be run by the two Wilmington grammars is on its way, but there have been planning and land issues. The closure of the failed Oasis Hextable Academy two years ago has not helped the pressure. The 66 Bexley children admitted to the six Dartford schools almost exactly balanced by the 63 going the other way.

Dover was the District with most vacancies, but the proportion has dropped sharply from 25% in 2017, down to 4%. Each of the five schools has a few vacancies apart from Sandwich Technology College, 14 oversubscribed. However, Astor College, which has had a difficult time in recent years including two DfE warnings about low standards, has 58 LAAs, although it is not clear where these have come from, but possibly towards Folkestone. Otherwise, it would have had a third of its places vacant.

Goodwin Academy, in its new buildings, is oversubscribed for the first time since its Ofsted failure in 2014, thanks also to good management within the school, but is being financially crippled with staff lay offs, by the appalling sponsors, SchoolsCompany.  

A proposed new academy, the Maidstone School of Science and Technology has repeatedly been delayed because of planning issues, with the sponsors losing patience and could walk away from the deal.

Lenham School renamed from Swadelands after its failed OFSTED and subsequent academisation, appears to be recovering popularity with its number of vacancies falling from 45 in 2017, to 15 this year. The two academies of the Future Schools Trust, on the west of the town are both disaster areas, with poor academic performance and low popularity, in spite of new premises. Although New Line Learning Academy has just 33 vacancies, it has 80 of the town’s 103 LAAs. This gives it the second highest vacancy rate in Kent before LAAs are taken into account at 54%. Cornwallis was recently described to me as ‘huge, plazas instead of classrooms and fish bowl science labs. Not a good learning environment for easily distracted children’. Certainly, my last visit there left me with a very negative view watching the movement of children round the site.

Orchards Academy in Swanley continues to be very popular, also thriving on the closure of Oasis Hextable, offering places to all its 105 first choices, but by virtue of expanding 20 places to 140.

Oasis Isle of Sheppey Academy not only has 99 of its 390 places empty, but 70 of its offers are to LAAs. Most of these will be Isle of Sheppey families desperate to avoid the school who do not include it in their applications, but finish up being allocated as the other Swale schools are full. At 43%, third highest percentage of vacancies in Kent before LAAs added in, behind the two other unpopular Tough Love Academies. Second highest percentage of children leaving for Home Education in County in 2016-17, at 3.3%, the school reportedly suggesting this to complainants as a solution. Something needs to be done about the mismanagement of this school, but no one seems to care.

I have been asked about the chances of appeal from Isle of Sheppey to one of the mainstream schools. Figures for Fulston and Westlands in chart on Page 1. Sittingbourne Community College and Abbey School, Faversham (easy ride on train) are a few places oversubscribed, but neither appears to have needed appeals in 2017.  Well worth a try with a late application if necessary, if you can't face OISA. Some families are desperate enough to avoid the  school they Home Educate! This should not be happening. Girls might like to try Rainham School for Girls in Medway.

St George’s CofE, with 196 first choices turned away is the most oversubscribed school in Kent, King Ethelbert fourth with 139. The scale of the problem is exemplified by Charles Dickens, in Special Measures, until it became an academy last year, sponsored by Barton Court Grammar School, which cancelled the Ofsted failure. Even with this background it is still 64 first choices oversubscribed, as some families avoid the most popular schools in a bid to maximise their chances at one of the two problem schools.

Hartsdown Academy, one of my three Tough Love Academies almost appears to seek controversial headlines, my most recent article covering one of these. 24 children from the school left for Home Education in 2016-17, third highest percentage of any school in the county. For lack of any alternatives, both these schools.

Many non-selective schools lose numbers before September; in the case of Thanet the four poplar ones each took on extra pupils through appeals. Hartsdown was 83% full, Royal Harbour Academy 91%, so limited space there and these will soon fill with incomers to the District.

Hadlow Rural Community School offers a land based curriculum, and is the most oversubscribed for its 75 places, turning away 66 first choices Between them, the other three oversubscribed schools have added 53 places. Here the interesting school is Malling (see the Holmesdale reference) 49 vacancies just four years ago, then a no no for the nearby Kings Hill development, but now one of the most oversubscribed schools in Kent, rejecting 57 first choices.

Wrotham deserves a mention, a school that has to do well as it depends on drawing pupils in from neighbouring towns, with no large community of its own. The fact it is 24 first choices oversubscribed speaks for itself! Has now taken over struggling Aylesford. Perhaps Holmesdale will be next!

The puzzle is Hayesbrook, 6^th highest vacancy rate in Kent at 38% before its 57 LAAs nearly fill it up. Where do these LAAs come from, the only other Tonbridge school admitting boys, Hugh Christie, having two vacancies so not there. Hadlow, a few miles out of town is one possibility but if so, many unsuccessful applicants have chosen no Tonbridge school. The only solution I can see is that these are overspill from the Tunbridge Wells debacle, see below, living to the north of the town who presumably won’t be happy at this solution to their problems. Hillview, the Tonbridge girls school, was 13 places oversubscribed.

32 children from the south of the town have been sent to High Weald Academy in Cranbrook, twenty miles away. Up to 57 boys to the north have been allocated Hayesbrook in Tonbridge. A further 82 children, who will be nearly all from Tonbridge Wells District have found places at: Beacon Academy, Crowborough, 31 children; Uplands Community College, Wadhurst (probably with some from the Cranbrook area of the District) 51 children; and some of the 12 to Robertsbridge Community College. Some of these will be travelling by choice to full comprehensive schools.

Update: Theory without evidence - because Hayesbrook is in the south of Tonbridge, it is the nearest overspill secular school for TW boys from whichever part of town who fail to get into SKA. Girls can't get into the partner Hillview as it is oversubscribed. That leaves predominantly girls bound for High Weald. Can any one advise if this sounds correct?

Bennett Memorial has kept last year’s temporary increase of 60 pupils, to offer 270 places again, turning away 49 first choices, almost the same as last year. St Gregory’s Catholic has made a further temporary increase from the 180 PAN of 2017, upped to 210 that year, to 240 for 2018. It has still overtaken Bennett in terms of popularity, with a sharp increase in oversubscription to 58. Both of these two schools give priority for all their places to families following religious practices taking little account of location, a situation unique in Kent with just one other non-selective school in the town. The problem is increased further by the two schools admitting 37 East Sussex pupils between them at the expense of local children.

This places enormous pressure on the only secular school, Skinners Kent Academy, which has retained its intake at 180, in spite of a temporary increase to 210 in 2016. This Ofsted Outstanding school has increased its popularity even further, turning 87 first choices away with no other local non-faith non-selective school to go to. Some families will be looking to school appeals to secure a place. The 2017 outcomes are as follows:

 This can only be a rough guide to outcomes in 2018 as circumstances at each school can change and the number of applications for each school has risen considerably.  

Some of the Tunbridge Wells families may have put Mascall’s School in Paddock Wood as a back up, with 45 of its 240 places going to second or third preference, but still 27 first choices did not get offered places, possibly from the Cranbrook/Weald area, further away.

Certainly, High Weald Academy is seen as a school of last resort by many, and I have written about it elsewhere. The 32 families whose children have been placed there mainly because of the shortage of secular places in Tunbridge Wells, and now face a round journey of some 30 miles daily, cannot be happy. Some places will be filled by successful appellants to grammar schools.

The bottom line is that unless additional permanent secular places are provided as a matter of urgency, there is inevitably a crisis of provision I Tunbridge Wells. If in doubt, it is wise to consult the KCC Schools Commissioning Plan, where one will find on page 159/160, the following: