The following document comes from the Kent County council proposal to abolish free school transport for most children attending grammar and faith schools from 2012.

It contains considerable statistical information which would have informed the consultation on the subject which led up to the proposals. I have also provided further information and comment elsewhere on the site.

Denominational Primary
• It is estimated that 288 of the 640 pupils currently eligible would retain their
eligibility given the proposals set out in the consultation.  This is equivalent to
45% of current eligible pupils attending denominational primary schools in Kent.   
• The pupils most likely to retain their eligibility are pupils from less affluent
families, many living on low incomes and reliant on state assistance.  In addition,
many pupils from rural areas retain their eligibility as they tend to live further than
the statutory distance from a school.
• Of the 352 pupils who would no longer be eligible (55% of pupils), those most
affected would be those families on middle and high incomes.
• Analysis of equality criteria show the majority of pupils are not negatively
impacted.  Areas which may warrant further attention are children where English
is an additional language as the proportion retaining their eligibility is lower than
the proportion of pupils where English is their first language.  In addition, the
proportion of pupils from an ethnic minority retaining their eligibility is lower than
the overall proportion. However, the number of pupils for both of these groups is
very small and these figures should be treated with caution.

Denominational Secondary
• 28% of eligible pupils attending denominational schools are from the most
affluent families in Kent.
• It is estimated that 664 of the 1,800 pupils currently eligible would retain their
eligibility given the proposals set out in the consultation.  This is equivalent to
37% of current eligible pupils attending denominational secondary schools in
Kent.   
• Pupils most affected by the proposed changes are those living in rural areas.  
Due to their location, they are more likely to live more than 3 miles from a school
and therefore maintain their eligibility (albeit to a nearer school).   
• A significant proportion of the most affluent also retain their eligibility.  
Approximately 42% of pupils from the most affluent families in Kent retain their
eligibility.   
• Of the 1,128 pupils who would no longer be eligible, those most affected would
be families on middle to lower incomes.
• Analysis of relevant equality criteria and other criteria including looked after
children and free school meals show the majority of pupils in these categories are
not negatively impacted by the proposed changes.   
• However, for children where English is an additional language the proportion
retaining their eligibility is slightly lower than the proportion of pupils where English is their first language.  There may also be some local impact for faith
schools amongst Irish and White Eastern European ethnic groups (although
number of pupils from ethnic groups are very small and should be treated with
caution).

Selective Secondary
• It is estimated that 6,863 pupils attending Selective secondary schools in Kent
are eligible for home to school transport. Over 2,500 or 36% are from the most
affluent families in Kent.

• It is estimated that 2,664 of those pupils currently eligible would retain their
eligibility given the proposals set out in the consultation.  This is equivalent to
39% of current eligible pupils attending selective secondary schools in Kent.   
• A higher proportion of pupils living in rural areas retain their eligibility as they live
more than 3 miles from the nearest school.  In addition 40% or 989 pupils from
the most affluent families will still be entitled to home to school transport.
•  Of the 4,199 pupils who would no longer be eligible (61% of pupils), those most
affected would be those families on middle and low incomes, but a significant
minority are likely to be from families on low incomes surviving on limited means.  
This could potentially be mitigated by actively promoting Free School Meals take
up for children from low income families.
• Analysis of equality criteria show the majority of pupils are not negatively
impacted.  Areas which may warrant further attention are children where English
is an additional language as the proportion retaining their eligibility is slightly
lower than the proportion of pupils where English is their first language.  In
addition, the proportion of pupils from the ethnic groups White Eastern European
and Chinese retaining their eligibility is lower than the overall proportion.
However, the number of pupils from ethnic groups is very small and these figures
should be treated with caution.

Caveats
All figures are estimates based on a number of variables which have been
applied as proxies to establish eligibility such as free school meals, Special
Educational Needs Status and approximated distance from a child’s postcode to
the nearest school.
In addition, the results are based on 87% of current eligible pupils attending
denominational secondary schools and 91% of current eligible pupils attending
selective secondary schools.  This is due to some pupils attending schools
outside of Kent, or insufficient data for the pupil in order to determine if they
would qualify for eligibility.    It is considered the sample size is sufficient to
provide estimates.
The most affluent families in Kent are considered to be those classified as the
Mosaic segment K&M1.   This group is described as ‘Kent’s most highly educated
and financially successful citizens, living sought after locations’.

I have published a recent news item on proposed changes to the free school transport scheme in Kent. The attached appendix in this section provides statistical information on the number of children currently (2011) elgible for free school transport.

• If your child has been awarded a place at the nearest appropriate school, you may be eligible for free transport.
• The nearest appropriate school can be your nearest non selective school, your nearest denominational school, or your nearest grammar school.
• If you applied for the nearest appropriate school and it was full, then the ruling applies to the next nearest and so on.
• The criterion in Kent & Medway is three miles for a secondary school, and two for a primary school.
• This is calculated by the shortest walking route (which excludes for example the M2 in Medway!).
• Medway has a list of some schools in their admission booklet, where free transport applies.
• Medway parents living on the Hoo Peninsula have had considerable success with appeals for transport to Medway Grammar Schools (not necessarily the nearest) and if relevant to you, don't be put off. I am happy to support parents for such appeals.
• In both Kent & Medway, appeals against transport decisions are initially to a Panel of Councillors, and there are successes each year, often on grounds of wrong measurements. Medway appears more flexible for 'exceptional circumstances'.